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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultraloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cignal Ultra

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 9 games
78%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 6 games
33%
Sand King
Sand King
Jamesy · 5 games
60%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 4 games
25%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 3 games
33%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Abat · 3 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
33%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
57%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 7 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 5 games
20%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
AlaCrity · 4 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Force · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
343 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 969 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
375 picks · 526 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 712 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 558 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 332 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
303 picks · 164 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
300 picks · 221 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 280 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:40
Cignal Ultra 40%Nigma Galaxy SEA 60%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaJamesy
54% · 25 games50% · 12 games
MorphlingMeracle
Morphling
Axe
AxeAb1ng
45% · 23 games54% · 9 games
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
Ember Spirit
55% · 14 games
OraclePoloson
Oracle
43% · 13 games
Snapfire343
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct
Cignal Ultra 31%Nigma Galaxy SEA 69%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 69%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2