?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultraloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
South Built Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cignal Ultra

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 9 games
78%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 6 games
33%
Sand King
Sand King
Jamesy · 5 games
60%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 4 games
25%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 3 games
33%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Abat · 3 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
33%

South Built Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Abat · 4 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Enryu · 3 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Abat · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Enryu · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 3 games
33%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 1014 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 594 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
351 picks · 356 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
351 picks · 182 bans
46%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
331 picks · 527 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
327 picks · 706 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 288 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% South Built Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% South Built Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:34
Cignal Ultra 43%South Built Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on South Built Esports — the game was taken by South Built Esports in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAb1ng
53% · 11 games56% · 37 games
AlchemistAbat
Alchemist
Puck
PuckJamesy
44% · 83 games40% · 6 games
BroodmotherEnryu
Broodmother
55% · 51 game
TinyBob
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed44:12
Cignal Ultra 43%South Built Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on South Built Esports — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorAb1ng
63% · 28 games38% · 29 games
GyrocopterAbat
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckJamesy
51% · 119 games44% · 74 games
Earth SpiritBob
Earth Spirit
53% · 44 games
AlchemistEnryu
Alchemist
Game 3prediction correct37:44
Cignal Ultra 43%South Built Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on South Built Esports — the game was taken by South Built Esports in 37:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautAb1ng
60% · 73 games36% · 25 games
Phantom AssassinAbat
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyJamesy
56% · 52 games39% · 87 games
PuckBob
Puck
57% · 13 games
BristlebackEnryu
Bristleback
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth Built Esports · 61%
Series resultSouth Built Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3