?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
CIS Rejectswin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CIS Rejects

No games played over 6 months.

Hydra

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 15 games
53%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 12 games
75%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 10 games
80%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 8 games
100%
Lion
Lionsignature
Zayac · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Zayac · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
322 picks · 459 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
274 picks · 209 bans
59%
Monkey King
Monkey King
263 picks · 697 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
263 picks · 149 bans
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
262 picks · 395 bans
44%
Weaver
Weaver
258 picks · 556 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
210 picks · 295 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
210 picks · 98 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 69%
Hero pool strength62% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:23
CIS Rejects 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:35.
Game 2prediction correct32:10
CIS Rejects 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 37:41.
Game 3prediction correct20:18
CIS Rejects 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 37:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 53%
Series resultCIS Rejects 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3