Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
CIS Rejectswin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
Rubick
Antares · 2 games
Bane
Kidaro · 1 game
Disruptor
Kidaro · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 1 game
Grimstroke
Kidaro · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
337 picks · 480 bans
Snapfire
290 picks · 167 bans
Bane
278 picks · 218 bans
Weaver
274 picks · 601 bans
Monkey King
256 picks · 715 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 395 bans
Ember Spirit
219 picks · 306 bans
Disruptor
214 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:38
CIS Rejects 80%X3 20%
The model gave 80% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by X3 in 42:44.
Game 2prediction missed20:15
CIS Rejects 80%X3 20%
The model gave 80% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by X3 in 33:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 80%
Series resultCIS Rejects 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2