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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud9win 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cloud9

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 39 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
Fishman · 28 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
DM · 20 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kataomi · 18 games
72%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fishman · 17 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kataomi · 17 games
82%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
No[o]ne · 17 games
53%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Fishman · 17 games
59%

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 36 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 34 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 28 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 28 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 23 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 23 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 375 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 426 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 538 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
331 picks · 734 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 640 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 743 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
313 picks · 627 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Cloud9
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Cloud9
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:10
Cloud9 57%1w Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Cloud9 — the game was taken by Cloud9 in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaNo[o]ne
49% · 177 games51% · 194 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Mirana
MiranaWatson
47% · 128 games49% · 150 games
PuckChira JUNIOR
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaDM
56% · 117 games54% · 160 games
DoomCloud
Doom
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKataomi
54% · 42 games45% · 81 game
Snapfireswedenstrong
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFishman
50% · 181 game46% · 60 games
IoRESPECT
Io
Game 2prediction correct37:10
Cloud9 56%1w Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Cloud9 — the game was taken by Cloud9 in 36:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
53% · 151 game46% · 55 games
AlchemistMunkushi~
Alchemist
Invoker
InvokerWatson
50% · 119 games50% · 51 game
Sand KingCloud
Sand King
Enigma
EnigmaDM
52% · 141 game49% · 201 game
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinKataomi
51% · 96 games44% · 168 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Bane
BaneFishman
56% · 94 games50% · 126 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteCloud9 · 59%
Series resultCloud9 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2