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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud9win 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cloud9

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 39 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
Fishman · 29 games
76%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
DM · 20 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kataomi · 19 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fishman · 17 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kataomi · 17 games
82%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
No[o]ne · 17 games
53%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Fishman · 17 games
59%

Aurora Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Q · 8 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 8 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Jabz · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 6 games
83%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 6 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
23savage · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 376 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 423 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 541 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
346 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
332 picks · 721 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 638 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
315 picks · 606 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 728 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 39%
Hero pool strength59% Cloud9
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Cloud9
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
Cloud9 62%Aurora Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Cloud9 — the game was taken by Cloud9 in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWatson
48% · 140 games47% · 122 games
Mirana23savage
Mirana
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
46% · 266 games53% · 206 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
40% · 51 game59% · 78 games
EarthshakerLorenof
Earthshaker
Naga Siren
Naga SirenFishman
58% · 103 games44% · 87 games
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKataomi
51% · 25 games52% · 92 games
Treant ProtectorOli
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct19:8
Cloud9 62%Aurora Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Cloud9 — the game was taken by Cloud9 in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerWatson
51% · 219 games48% · 150 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 164 games47% · 84 games
Shadow FiendLorenof
Shadow Fiend
Tinker
TinkerKataomi
56% · 25 games52% · 211 games
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
Centaur Warrunner
Underlord
UnderlordDM
44% · 63 games51% · 185 games
BatriderQ
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFishman
49% · 186 games56% · 27 games
OmniknightOli
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteCloud9 · 69%
Series resultCloud9 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2