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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud9loss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cloud9

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 37 games
62%
Bane
Banesignature
Fishman · 28 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kataomi · 18 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
DM · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kataomi · 17 games
82%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
No[o]ne · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fishman · 16 games
94%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
69%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 46 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
66%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 26 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
402 picks · 366 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
380 picks · 415 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 541 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
310 picks · 535 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
306 picks · 674 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 622 bans
49%
Sven
Sven
297 picks · 310 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Cloud9
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:24
Cloud9 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNo[o]ne
52% · 117 games53% · 104 games
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Monkey King
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
51% · 155 games51% · 39 games
BroodmotherATF
Broodmother
Rubick
RubickKataomi
48% · 310 games43% · 273 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
KunkkaDM
49% · 180 games48% · 145 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Bane
BaneFishman
58% · 61 game51% · 262 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct16:36
Cloud9 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWatson
55% · 265 games53% · 160 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingDM
56% · 107 games49% · 183 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
51% · 65 games51% · 125 games
MarsATF
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFishman
52% · 251 game41% · 180 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKataomi
49% · 59 games43% · 99 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 79%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2