DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Cloud Dawningwin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
NNaiLongloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cloud Dawning
No games played over 6 months.
NaiLong
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
528 picks · 319 bans
Dark Willow
439 picks · 211 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 177 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 309 bans
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 507 bans
Centaur Warrunner
312 picks · 295 bans
Earth Spirit
295 picks · 511 bans
Windranger
282 picks · 139 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Cloud Dawning
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Cloud Dawning
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Cloud Dawning 50%NaiLong 50%
The model gave 50% on Cloud Dawning — the game was taken by Cloud Dawning.
Model check result
Model favoriteCloud Dawning · 50%
Series resultCloud Dawning 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1