BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Risingloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HSHong shi zhang zuiwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cloud Rising
Gyrocopteroften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Storm Spirit
Q7 · 1 game
Hong shi zhang zui
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Shadow Demon
Undyne_ · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 1 game
Hoodwink
TK · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
TK · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
lou · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 686 bans
Shadow Shaman
289 picks · 179 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 249 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 650 bans
Disruptor
252 picks · 216 bans
Dark Willow
249 picks · 105 bans
Marci
244 picks · 591 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength63% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% Hong shi zhang zui
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:29
Cloud Rising 34%Hong shi zhang zui 66%
The model gave 66% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaYumeyume
Svenlou
Void SpiritQ7
LycanBEYOND
40% · 50 games
SnapfireTK
52% · 76 games
ClockwerkUndyne_
Game 2prediction correct16:28
Cloud Rising 29%Hong shi zhang zui 71%
The model gave 71% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 36:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EarthshakerQ7
Ursalou
GyrocopterYumeyume
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
44% · 5 games
Skywrath MageTK
51% · 93 games
Shadow DemonUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteHong shi zhang zui · 81%
Series resultHong shi zhang zui 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2