ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
CONSILIUMwin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TBTeam baracudaloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CONSILIUM
No games played over 6 months.
Team baracuda
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 526 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 360 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 437 bans
Luna
311 picks · 361 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 560 bans
Dark Willow
273 picks · 144 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 338 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 944 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% CONSILIUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% CONSILIUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:36
CONSILIUM 53%Team baracuda 47%
The model gave 53% on CONSILIUM — the game was taken by CONSILIUM in 42:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteCONSILIUM · 53%
Series resultCONSILIUM 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1