PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 20 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 15 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 15 games
Slardarsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
Kezsignature
Watson · 14 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Malady · 14 games
Team Nemesis
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 19 games
Pangolier
Jabz · 19 games
Tinysignature
rubikon155 · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 17 games
Clockwerk
Lelis · 15 games
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
Windranger
rubikon155 · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
481 picks · 289 bans
Mirana
338 picks · 140 bans
Dark Willow
331 picks · 152 bans
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 463 bans
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 298 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 438 bans
Clockwerk
271 picks · 200 bans
Winter Wyvern
270 picks · 247 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:0
Team Yandex 77%Team Nemesis 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 13:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawATF
Shadow FiendJaCkky
KezWatson
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
DoomSabeRLight-
Winter WyvernMalady
HoodwinkJhocam
Dark WillowSaksa
BaneNARMAN
Game 2prediction correct38:5
Team Yandex 77%Team Nemesis 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 28:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezWatson
Shadow FiendJaCkky
TimbersawATF
Dragon KnightMo13ei
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
DoomSabeRLight-
Winter WyvernMalady
HoodwinkJhocam
Dark WillowSaksa
BaneNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 91%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2