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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Conventus Stellarumwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Conventus Stellarum

Windranger
Windranger
Ghost · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
OmaR · 3 games
33%
Techies
Techies
OmaR · 3 games
33%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Panto · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DM · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Panto · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 2 games
50%

Yakult Brothers

Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 21 game
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kaka · 17 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Moon · 16 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
lou · 16 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 14 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Emo · 12 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
天命 · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 292 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
351 picks · 148 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 157 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 464 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 299 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
290 picks · 456 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
280 picks · 258 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
271 picks · 364 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
Conventus Stellarum 51%Yakult Brothers 49%
The model gave 51% on Conventus Stellarum — the game was taken by Conventus Stellarum in 30:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLorenof
51% · 121 game51% · 84 games
Svenlou
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
55% · 341 game46% · 263 games
WindrangerEmo
Windranger
Viper
ViperGhost
56% · 122 games41% · 187 games
UnderlordBEYOND
Underlord
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterOmaR
61% · 46 games39% · 240 games
Dark WillowKaka
Dark Willow
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPanto
61% · 154 games39% · 10 games
Outworld Destroyer天命
Outworld Destroyer
Game 2prediction missed41:16
Conventus Stellarum 49%Yakult Brothers 51%
The model gave 51% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Conventus Stellarum in 42:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerGhost
44% · 184 games52% · 106 games
Lone Druidlou
Lone Druid
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
52% · 187 games45% · 99 games
LinaEmo
Lina
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
54% · 206 games55% · 273 games
LargoBEYOND
Largo
Techies
TechiesOmaR
46% · 130 games45% · 180 games
LionKaka
Lion
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPanto
60% · 127 games49% · 176 games
Undying天命
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 51%
Series resultConventus Stellarum 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2