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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 15 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Fishman · 14 games
71%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
77%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 11 games
36%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ATF · 11 games
55%
Io
Iosignature
Chuvash · 10 games
60%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
ATF · 10 games
70%

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
SkyLark · 12 games
67%
Axe
Axe
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
38%
Weaver
Weaversignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
261 picks · 320 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
261 picks · 372 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
248 picks · 562 bans
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
231 picks · 245 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
225 picks · 105 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
220 picks · 454 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 269 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
210 picks · 128 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total68% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:16
Creepwave 61%Brame 39%
The model gave 61% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 48:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
48% · 143 games50% · 152 games
MedusaNefrit
Medusa
Razor
RazorCrystallis
52% · 83 games48% · 209 games
PuckW1sh-
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterTobi
56% · 197 games53% · 86 games
IoSkyLark
Io
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerKataomi
35% · 15 games47% · 22 games
Chaos KnightCTOMAHEH1
Chaos Knight
Abaddon
AbaddonFishman
52% · 149 games45% · 118 games
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct37:21
Creepwave 59%Brame 41%
The model gave 59% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCrystallis
45% · 87 games54% · 81 game
KunkkaW1sh-
Kunkka
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
46% · 172 games54% · 91 game
UrsaNefrit
Ursa
Viper
ViperTobi
51% · 97 games56% · 82 games
BloodseekerSkyLark
Bloodseeker
Snapfire
SnapfireKataomi
50% · 168 games45% · 243 games
LinaCTOMAHEH1
Lina
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFishman
49% · 139 games52% · 166 games
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 68%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2