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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwaveloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 16 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 11 games
82%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 9 games
67%

Hellbear Smashers

Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 10 games
80%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
70%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 9 games
89%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 8 games
88%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 7 games
71%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
tOfu · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
257 picks · 532 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
234 picks · 294 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
213 picks · 385 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
201 picks · 155 bans
49%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
171 picks · 306 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
168 picks · 196 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
165 picks · 537 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
163 picks · 213 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:31
Creepwave 47%Hellbear Smashers 53%
The model gave 53% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 44:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
48% · 74 games50% · 6 games
Arc WardenAce
Arc Warden
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
47% · 32 games49% · 59 games
BatriderStormstormer
Batrider
Mars
MarsATF
39% · 57 games68% · 46 games
BeastmasterMISERY
Beastmaster
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMiLAN
44% · 52 games52% · 86 games
Keeper of the LightGilgir
Keeper of the Light
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorFishman
40% · 29 games59% · 47 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct28:34
Creepwave 46%Hellbear Smashers 54%
The model gave 54% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCrystallis
41% · 19 games34% · 7 games
Naga SirenAce
Naga Siren
Mars
MarsATF
39% · 49 games56% · 74 games
Death ProphetStormstormer
Death Prophet
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
48% · 65 games66% · 46 games
BeastmasterMISERY
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaMiLAN
65% · 16 games57% · 3 games
Bounty HuntertOfu
Bounty Hunter
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorFishman
36% · 21 game47% · 40 games
Crystal MaidenGilgir
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 56%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2