Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creepwave
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Alexxo · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 4 games
Lich
Fishman · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Malr1ne · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Fishman · 2 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 2 games
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
112 picks · 249 bans
Mars
102 picks · 218 bans
Earth Spirit
98 picks · 76 bans
Void Spirit
91 picks · 143 bans
Phoenix
85 picks · 89 bans
Rubick
73 picks · 35 bans
Nyx Assassin
69 picks · 245 bans
Wraith King
68 picks · 73 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 27%
Hero pool strength60% Creepwave
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:13
Creepwave 84%Hippomaniacs 16%
The model gave 84% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 45:12.
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Creepwave 84%Hippomaniacs 16%
The model gave 84% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 22:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 84%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2