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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Khanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 8 games
38%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
43%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 6 games
17%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 6 games
17%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Kataomi · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 6 games
83%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 6 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 5 games
60%

Khan

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
goddam · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
antoha · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Dodren · 2 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
layme · 2 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
366 picks · 176 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
333 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
271 picks · 495 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
255 picks · 427 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 343 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
249 picks · 329 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
247 picks · 519 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
234 picks · 486 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
Creepwave 58%Khan 42%
The model gave 58% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 32:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
51% · 77 games56% · 59 games
Terrorbladelayme
Terrorblade
Tiny
Tinybzm
48% · 81 game44% · 66 games
Ember SpiritDodren
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordATF
43% · 39 games59% · 14 games
Nature's ProphetpJonn
Nature's Prophet
Chen
ChenChuvash
50% · 8 games57% · 53 games
Shadow Demongoddam
Shadow Demon
Lich
LichFishman
40% · 10 games45% · 23 games
Night Stalkerantoha
Night Stalker
Game 2prediction correct49:31
Creepwave 59%Khan 41%
The model gave 59% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 47:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCrystallis
48% · 51 game47% · 83 games
Morphlinglayme
Morphling
Tiny
Tinybzm
45% · 52 games47% · 163 games
Void SpiritDodren
Void Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
52% · 102 games70% · 9 games
NecrophospJonn
Necrophos
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFishman
57% · 64 games51% · 30 games
Earthshakergoddam
Earthshaker
Io
IoChuvash
48% · 53 games53% · 37 games
Baneantoha
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 68%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2