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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Khanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
77%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 10 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 9 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ATF · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 8 games
63%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
ATF · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 8 games
100%

Khan

Tiny
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 8 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
pJonn · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 6 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
goddam · 6 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
263 picks · 327 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
250 picks · 379 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
243 picks · 136 bans
52%
Monkey King
Monkey King
233 picks · 509 bans
62%
Lina
Lina
232 picks · 493 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
223 picks · 302 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
216 picks · 252 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
214 picks · 286 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Creepwave
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total75% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:32
Creepwave 64%Khan 36%
The model gave 64% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Khan in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStormstormer
46% · 46 games52% · 76 games
Terrorbladelayme
Terrorblade
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallis
48% · 43 games53% · 82 games
Ember SpiritPikachu
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterTobi
50% · 118 games48% · 50 games
EarthshakerpJonn
Earthshaker
Bane
BaneKataomi
51% · 62 games51% · 82 games
Weavergoddam
Weaver
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFishman
50% · 52 games47% · 31 game
SilencerAccell
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct28:29
Creepwave 64%Khan 36%
The model gave 64% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStormstormer
43% · 81 game46% · 120 games
Morphlinglayme
Morphling
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
48% · 111 games57% · 91 game
Ember SpiritPikachu
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarTobi
51% · 63 games50% · 227 games
MarspJonn
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireFishman
47% · 175 games45% · 74 games
Weavergoddam
Weaver
Io
IoKataomi
53% · 133 games61% · 51 game
BaneAccell
Bane
Game 3prediction correct34:9
Creepwave 61%Khan 39%
The model gave 61% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 29:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStormstormer
43% · 28 games55% · 86 games
Ember Spiritlayme
Ember Spirit
Razor
RazorCrystallis
52% · 61 game51% · 149 games
LinaPikachu
Lina
Lycan
LycanTobi
39% · 69 games55% · 36 games
BroodmotherpJonn
Broodmother
Snapfire
SnapfireKataomi
45% · 131 game56% · 81 game
Dark Willowgoddam
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFishman
46% · 115 games61% · 52 games
BaneAccell
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 75%
Series resultCreepwave 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3