Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwaveloss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PuckChampwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creepwave
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 10 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 9 games
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
Lichsignature
Fishman · 8 games
Marssignature
ATF · 7 games
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 7 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 7 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
205 picks · 448 bans
Mars
182 picks · 338 bans
Void Spirit
179 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
172 picks · 139 bans
Phoenix
146 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
141 picks · 235 bans
Nyx Assassin
132 picks · 448 bans
Rubick
126 picks · 75 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 72%
Hero pool strength62% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:28
Creepwave 51%PuckChamp 49%
The model gave 51% on Creepwave — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 31:27.
Game 2prediction correct36:15
Creepwave 51%PuckChamp 49%
The model gave 51% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 36:13.
Game 3prediction missed18:32
Creepwave 51%PuckChamp 49%
The model gave 51% on Creepwave — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 37:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 51%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3