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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Creepwaveloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Void Spirit
Void Spirit
bzm · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 8 games
38%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 7 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 7 games
14%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 7 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 7 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 6 games
83%

Tundra Esports

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 15 games
80%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 15 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 14 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
33 · 10 games
100%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 191 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 134 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
298 picks · 604 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
282 picks · 623 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 360 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
279 picks · 469 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 241 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
252 picks · 360 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:37
Creepwave 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallis
51% · 66 games43% · 45 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
53% · 171 game50% · 56 games
Doom33
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
50% · 133 games47% · 292 games
MarsNine
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterChuvash
51% · 117 games57% · 159 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Rubick
RubickFishman
51% · 96 games41% · 31 game
OmniknightFata
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct23:44
Creepwave 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
53% · 137 games49% · 65 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Slark
SlarkCrystallis
48% · 39 games48% · 65 games
Keeper of the Light33
Keeper of the Light
Slardar
SlardarATF
53% · 52 games49% · 141 game
Void SpiritNine
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranaChuvash
56% · 168 games37% · 27 games
UndyingFata
Undying
Omniknight
OmniknightFishman
34% · 22 games52% · 120 games
Nyx AssassinSneyking
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 60%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2