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DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Crescentloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Su4 Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Crescent

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
冷鸟 · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
冷鸟 · 2 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
MangO · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
出省 · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
冷鸟 · 1 game
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Kry · 1 game
100%
Kez
Kezoften banned
MangO · 1 game
0%

Su4 Esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
508 picks · 314 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
436 picks · 218 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 307 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 493 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 284 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 503 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
274 picks · 130 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Su4 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Su4 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Crescent 29%Su4 Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Su4 Esports — the game was taken by Crescent.
Game 2prediction correct
Crescent 29%Su4 Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Su4 Esports — the game was taken by Su4 Esports.
Game 3prediction correct
Crescent 29%Su4 Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Su4 Esports — the game was taken by Su4 Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteSu4 Esports · 71%
Series resultSu4 Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3