Crewmates vs Gorillaz-Pride — prediction DPC2S—ЮА2Д 1 · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

CCrewmatesloss 0:2

series probability

46%54%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Gorillaz-Pridewin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Crewmates

Abaddonoften banned

DFlash · 1 game

Arc Wardenoften banned

FCR · 1 game

Axe

H1j4ck · 1 game

Batrideroften banned

H1j4ck · 1 game

Crystal Maiden

DFlash · 1 game

Iooften banned

FCR · 1 game

Leshracoften banned

H1j4ck · 1 game

Linaoften banned

4nalog · 1 game

Gorillaz-Pride

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

82 picks · 165 bans

48%

Puck

81 picks · 192 bans

53%

Earth Spirit

70 picks · 59 bans

57%

Void Spirit

63 picks · 115 bans

54%

Rubick

54 picks · 29 bans

48%

Undying

52 picks · 74 bans

55%

Phoenix

51 picks · 68 bans

56%

Monkey King

50 picks · 121 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%

Hero pool strength56% Gorillaz-Pride

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total54% Gorillaz-Pride

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct9:32

Crewmates 42%Gorillaz-Pride 58%

The model gave 58% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 36:35.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

IoFCR

43% · 3 games57% · 3 games

Centaur WarrunnerBenjaz