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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Crewmateswin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Omega Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Crewmates

Abaddon
Abaddon
DFlash · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
H1j4ck · 5 games
20%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FCR · 5 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Rayuur · 5 games
20%
Io
Iooften banned
FCR · 4 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
H1j4ck · 4 games
50%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
FCR · 3 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
FCR · 3 games
100%

Omega Gaming

Tusk
Tusk
Zxca · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Mingatte · 4 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeimari · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jeimari · 4 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Mingatte · 4 games
75%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mingatte · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zxca · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Zxca · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 999 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 575 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
344 picks · 524 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
340 picks · 353 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
332 picks · 180 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
327 picks · 700 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 222 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
261 picks · 279 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Omega Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:27
Crewmates 47%Omega Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 27:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinRayuur
63% · 8 games55% · 27 games
MedusaMingatte
Medusa
Slark
SlarkFCR
37% · 11 games62% · 10 games
LinaJeimari
Lina
Dark Seer
Dark SeerH1j4ck
44% · 23 games44% · 32 games
TinyDemon
Tiny
Abaddon
AbaddonDFlash
55% · 27 games
Game 2prediction missed53:24
Crewmates 48%Omega Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Crewmates in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautFCR
52% · 71 game50% · 38 games
MedusaMingatte
Medusa
Tiny
TinyRayuur
53% · 42 games53% · 65 games
Ember SpiritJeimari
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightH1j4ck
50% · 22 games48% · 114 games
Earth SpiritDemon
Earth Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDFlash
46% · 82 games
Game 3prediction missed53:23
Crewmates 49%Omega Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Crewmates in 52:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordFCR
51% · 35 games55% · 30 games
MedusaMingatte
Medusa
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinRayuur
63% · 8 games49% · 51 game
BatriderJeimari
Batrider
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightH1j4ck
45% · 12 games39% · 27 games
TinyDemon
Tiny
Oracle
OracleDFlash
52% · 53 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 55%
Series resultCrewmates 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3