ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
CriTicS Esportsloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Covenantwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CriTicS Esports
No games played over 6 months.
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
443 picks · 357 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 545 bans
Batrider
368 picks · 466 bans
Lion
365 picks · 191 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 589 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 559 bans
Tusk
349 picks · 374 bans
Phoenix
347 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% CriTicS Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% The Covenant
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:28
CriTicS Esports 40%The Covenant 60%
The model gave 60% on The Covenant — the game was taken by The Covenant in 31:36.
Game 2prediction correct34:41
CriTicS Esports 40%The Covenant 60%
The model gave 60% on The Covenant — the game was taken by The Covenant in 36:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Covenant · 60%
Series resultThe Covenant 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2