Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Crocodileloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spiky Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Crocodile
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Irving · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Irving · 1 game
Underlord
Irving · 1 game
Spiky Gaming
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Hara · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Razoroften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
417 picks · 618 bans
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 390 bans
Crystal Maiden
369 picks · 143 bans
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
317 picks · 579 bans
Rubick
317 picks · 156 bans
Dark Willow
316 picks · 341 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 653 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Crocodile
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:41
Crocodile 49%Spiky Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerIrving
WeaverManic
61% · 29 games
EarthshakerHara
Game 2prediction missed48:25
Crocodile 49%Spiky Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Crocodile in 27:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsIrving
Night StalkerManic
55% · 7 games
Spirit BreakerHara
Game 3prediction missed7:22
Crocodile 50%Spiky Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 13:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerIrving
MarciManic
57% · 26 games
SnapfireHara
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 51%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3