DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Crocodilewin 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TTToLight Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Crocodile
Doomoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Hara · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Muerta
Manic · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Manic · 1 game
ToLight Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
412 picks · 535 bans
Muerta
404 picks · 333 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 386 bans
Lion
353 picks · 174 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 431 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 791 bans
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 490 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% ToLight Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:50
Crocodile 70%ToLight Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Crocodile — the game was taken by ToLight Team in 38:21.
Game 2prediction correct25:25
Crocodile 70%ToLight Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Crocodile in 29:54.
Game 3prediction correct41:32
Crocodile 70%ToLight Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Crocodile in 31:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 70%
Series resultCrocodile 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3