ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionCcrychicloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Rabbitwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
crychic
No games played over 6 months.
Evil Rabbit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Irving · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 5 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Irving · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
QYQX · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
435 picks · 561 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 379 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 442 bans
Luna
318 picks · 377 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 574 bans
Dark Willow
281 picks · 150 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 333 bans
Shadow Demon
258 picks · 983 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% crychic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:32
crychic 44%Evil Rabbit 56%
The model gave 56% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 17:18.
Game 2prediction correct12:37
crychic 44%Evil Rabbit 56%
The model gave 56% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 31:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 56%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2