Открытые киберспортивные игры 2024 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
CSKA ESPORTSwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ReBelloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CSKA ESPORTS
No games played over 6 months.
ReBel
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
485 picks · 667 bans
Clockwerk
423 picks · 497 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 539 bans
Dark Willow
360 picks · 184 bans
Batrider
329 picks · 351 bans
Luna
329 picks · 437 bans
Enchantress
315 picks · 597 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 564 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% CSKA ESPORTS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% CSKA ESPORTS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:20
CSKA ESPORTS 51%ReBel 49%
The model gave 51% on CSKA ESPORTS — the game was taken by CSKA ESPORTS in 41:45.
Game 2prediction missed42:40
CSKA ESPORTS 51%ReBel 49%
The model gave 51% on CSKA ESPORTS — the game was taken by ReBel in 45:59.
Game 3prediction correct36:10
CSKA ESPORTS 51%ReBel 49%
The model gave 51% on CSKA ESPORTS — the game was taken by CSKA ESPORTS in 31:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteCSKA ESPORTS · 51%
Series resultCSKA ESPORTS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3