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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cuyes Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cuyes Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 4 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Parker · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Parker · 2 games
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Matthew · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Matthew · 1 game
0%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 25 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 20 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 17 games
35%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
43%
Techies
Techiessignature
Panda · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 678 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
420 picks · 197 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 549 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 420 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
351 picks · 585 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
348 picks · 169 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 640 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 848 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:0
Cuyes Esports 45%BOOM Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 18913:17:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaParker
46% · 100 games40% · 46 games
Templar AssassinPakazs
Templar Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordILICH-
49% · 46 games63% · 27 games
LeshracDarkMago
Leshrac
Jakiro
JakiroMjz
30% · 6 games56% · 62 games
PangolierSacred
Pangolier
25% · 4 games
Ogre MagiYadomi
Ogre Magi
72% · 13 games
IoMatthew
Io
Game 2prediction correct18:33
Cuyes Esports 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoParker
52% · 50 games43% · 65 games
WindrangerPakazs
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierILICH-
47% · 258 games51% · 61 game
BrewmasterSacred
Brewmaster
Jakiro
JakiroMjz
60% · 10 games52% · 70 games
Dragon KnightDarkMago
Dragon Knight
54% · 62 games
HoodwinkMatthew
Hoodwink
51% · 60 games
WeaverYadomi
Weaver
Game 3prediction correct11:33
Cuyes Esports 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 54:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeParker
45% · 143 games50% · 49 games
Troll WarlordPakazs
Troll Warlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerILICH-
59% · 136 games41% · 134 games
Dragon KnightDarkMago
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixMjz
49% · 230 games51% · 86 games
TuskYadomi
Tusk
54% · 79 games
WeaverMatthew
Weaver
49% · 161 game
PangolierSacred
Pangolier
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 60%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3