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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cuyes Esportswin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Free Stackloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cuyes Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 10 games
80%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mjz · 6 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mjz · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Parker · 4 games
50%

Free Stack

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Pamplona · 1 game
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Argius · 1 game
0%
Magnus
Magnus
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Pamplona · 1 game
0%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Argius · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 276 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 453 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
320 picks · 311 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
316 picks · 366 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
304 picks · 425 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 469 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
296 picks · 514 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:23
Cuyes Esports 69%Free Stack 31%
The model gave 69% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCostabile
42% · 92 games50% · 206 games
LunaArgius
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawILICH-
46% · 164 games49% · 152 games
MarsAdrx
Mars
Invoker
InvokerPiPi
53% · 64 games55% · 66 games
SniperPamplona
Sniper
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPanda
54% · 104 games
Game 2prediction missed27:32
Cuyes Esports 68%Free Stack 32%
The model gave 68% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Free Stack in 45:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCostabile
44% · 125 games55% · 77 games
Shadow FiendArgius
Shadow Fiend
Sniper
SniperPiPi
51% · 55 games61% · 78 games
BristlebackAdrx
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
43% · 160 games48% · 294 games
BatriderPamplona
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
46% · 109 games
Game 3prediction correct29:23
Cuyes Esports 70%Free Stack 30%
The model gave 70% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCostabile
53% · 175 games45% · 223 games
MorphlingArgius
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal BeastPiPi
52% · 169 games57% · 186 games
MarsAdrx
Mars
Enigma
EnigmaILICH-
52% · 72 games44% · 144 games
SnapfirePamplona
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanda
49% · 137 games
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 83%
Series resultCuyes Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3