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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cuyes Esportswin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
South Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cuyes Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 9 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mjz · 6 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
75%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
100%

South Team

Visage
Visageoften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Argius · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
ArzenT · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 348 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
408 picks · 447 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
386 picks · 827 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 871 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
358 picks · 742 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 512 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
328 picks · 499 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 560 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:26
Cuyes Esports 67%South Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 47:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaCostabile
44% · 53 games50% · 46 games
AlchemistArgius
Alchemist
Viper
ViperILICH-
48% · 22 games53% · 87 games
Brewmasterblessed kid
Brewmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMjz
53% · 180 games52% · 122 games
EnchantressJimmyCoff666
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct30:19
Cuyes Esports 67%South Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCostabile
49% · 96 games46% · 79 games
MorphlingArgius
Morphling
Sand King
Sand KingILICH-
45% · 59 games47% · 24 games
Underlordblessed kid
Underlord
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMjz
57% · 47 games54% · 99 games
SvenJimmyCoff666
Sven
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 80%
Series resultCuyes Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2