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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Cyber Goosewin 3:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cyber Goose

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 8 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
prblms · 8 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 8 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 6 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
prblms · 6 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Noticed · 5 games
100%

Natus Vincere

Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 19 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 18 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 18 games
72%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 13 games
77%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
549 picks · 616 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
478 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
462 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
390 picks · 805 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 534 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
354 picks · 808 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 309 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
340 picks · 389 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total55% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:11
Cyber Goose 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 33:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerTA2000
45% · 49 games60% · 114 games
SvenYuragi
Sven
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChira JUNIOR
51% · 31 game54% · 169 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierNoticed
47% · 317 games60% · 248 games
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Ringmaster
RingmasterSolo
44% · 115 games35% · 52 games
DisruptorAri
Disruptor
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanprblms
50% · 118 games49% · 47 games
OracleKaori
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed35:16
Cyber Goose 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonTA2000
42% · 125 games51% · 496 games
TinyYuragi
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierNoticed
43% · 552 games48% · 129 games
LinaCopy
Lina
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
49% · 329 games54% · 198 games
MagnusBOOM
Magnus
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanprblms
61% · 193 games49% · 275 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Dazzle
DazzleSolo
54% · 44 games49% · 145 games
LionAri
Lion
Game 3prediction missed38:26
Cyber Goose 45%Natus Vincere 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 51:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaTA2000
46% · 152 games55% · 363 games
DoomYuragi
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierNoticed
46% · 320 games54% · 248 games
TimbersawCopy
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
46% · 414 games51% · 213 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Tusk
Tuskprblms
50% · 287 games52% · 256 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmasterSolo
41% · 175 games59% · 268 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 55%
Series resultCyber Goose 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3