Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBER UNIONloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winter Bearwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CYBER UNION
Tiny
Miyaoo · 12 games
Silenceroften banned
Arti_Shock · 11 games
Tusk
OneJey · 10 games
Lich
Arti_Shock · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
OneJey · 5 games
Clockwerk
OneJey · 4 games
Winter Bear
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
348 picks · 267 bans
Marci
299 picks · 547 bans
Tusk
280 picks · 219 bans
Undying
275 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 458 bans
Primal Beast
231 picks · 520 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 309 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% CYBER UNION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:46
CYBER UNION 56%Winter Bear 44%
The model gave 56% on CYBER UNION — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 38:43.
Game 2prediction missed20:37
CYBER UNION 56%Winter Bear 44%
The model gave 56% on CYBER UNION — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 46:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBER UNION · 56%
Series resultWinter Bear 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2