ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
cybercatsloss 0:1series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:1
HellRaiserswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
cybercats
Hoodwink
Fezor · 23 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 16 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hduo · 13 games
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 12 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 12 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 11 games
Doomsignature
Fezor · 11 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
582 picks · 443 bans
Puck
411 picks · 886 bans
Mars
379 picks · 589 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 473 bans
Snapfire
348 picks · 179 bans
Bane
324 picks · 216 bans
Dawnbreaker
303 picks · 363 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
cybercats 31%HellRaisers 69%
The model gave 69% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 33:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 69%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1