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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatswin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

cybercats

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 15 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hduo · 13 games
31%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 11 games
82%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 10 games
20%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 10 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Hduo · 9 games
22%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fezor · 9 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Hduo · 8 games
63%

Hydra

Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 26 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kami · 19 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
Muka · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 437 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
464 picks · 685 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
432 picks · 540 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
420 picks · 291 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 596 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
356 picks · 577 bans
55%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
336 picks · 650 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
334 picks · 488 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:17
cybercats 45%Hydra 55%
The model gave 55% on Hydra — the game was taken by cybercats in 46:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverShigetsu
44% · 17 games49% · 42 games
ZeusAskold
Zeus
Puck
PuckEgor
64% · 7 games60% · 15 games
Warlockkickeed
Warlock
Tusk
TuskDkFogas
50% · 4 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
39% · 18 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageFezor
59% · 11 games
Game 2prediction correct11:29
cybercats 46%Hydra 54%
The model gave 54% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
53% · 11 games51% · 82 games
Winter WyvernAskold
Winter Wyvern
Leshrac
LeshracEgor
42% · 15 gameslittle data
Warlockkickeed
Warlock
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDkFogas
69% · 12 games
Rubick
RubickFezor
43% · 17 games
Io
IoHduo
42% · 27 games
Game 3prediction missed32:17
cybercats 46%Hydra 54%
The model gave 54% on Hydra — the game was taken by cybercats in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverShigetsu
44% · 17 games43% · 31 game
ZeusAskold
Zeus
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEgor
51% · 13 games57% · 23 games
Warlockkickeed
Warlock
Sand King
Sand KingDkFogas
59% · 14 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFezor
51% · 10 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiHduo
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 52%
Series resultcybercats 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3