?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
cybercatswin 1:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Hydraloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

cybercats

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 33 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 18 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 18 games
72%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 18 games
56%
Visage
Visagesignature
DkFogas · 17 games
82%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 16 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fezor · 16 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
46%

Hydra

Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 23 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Muka · 21 game
48%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Zayac · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 13 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Zayac · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Kami · 11 games
18%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
727 picks · 568 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
511 picks · 1027 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
478 picks · 629 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
439 picks · 781 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
367 picks · 412 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 164 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
326 picks · 380 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
310 picks · 592 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% cybercats
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total64% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:18
cybercats 59%Hydra 41%
The model gave 59% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 48:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerShigetsu
54% · 95 games43% · 169 games
PangolierAskold
Pangolier
Zeus
ZeusEgor
46% · 54 games48% · 97 games
Winter Wyvernkickeed
Winter Wyvern
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDkFogas
little data
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFezor
55% · 82 games
Undying
UndyingHduo
62% · 35 games
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 64%
Series resultcybercats 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1