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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatsloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

cybercats

Techies
Techiesoften banned
jesv · 17 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 15 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 11 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
forcemajor · 11 games
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Alberkaaa · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 9 games
56%

Matreshka Team

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Lagoona · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 6 games
50%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Lagoona · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 6 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Retsu · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
meLes · 5 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
695 picks · 476 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
596 picks · 638 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
569 picks · 1112 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
534 picks · 498 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
521 picks · 1233 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
475 picks · 1048 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 678 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
454 picks · 919 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:25
cybercats 49%Matreshka Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 48:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingDarkLord^
48% · 193 games55% · 104 games
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirityoung G
46% · 224 games51% · 180 games
SlarkRetsu
Slark
Enigma
EnigmaDkFogas
43% · 81 game53% · 85 games
Dark SeermeLes
Dark Seer
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonforcemajor
51% · 136 games54% · 232 games
Techiesdark
Techies
Medusa
MedusaDukalis
53% · 137 games46% · 170 games
Spirit BreakerLagoona
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct21:19
cybercats 49%Matreshka Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 45:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidDarkLord^
55% · 110 games51% · 308 games
MorphlingRetsu
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirityoung G
47% · 235 games50% · 230 games
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomDkFogas
46% · 212 games51% · 114 games
Dark SeermeLes
Dark Seer
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerforcemajor
51% · 139 games55% · 85 games
Bounty HunterLagoona
Bounty Hunter
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
48% · 209 games48% · 168 games
Pugnadark
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 52%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2