Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatsloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NMNo Monkey Businesswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
cybercats
Grimstroke
Fezor · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 6 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
Jakiro
Fezor · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
Rubick
Fezor · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 4 games
Bane
Fezor · 3 games
No Monkey Business
Razoroften banned
xannii · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Egor · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
illusion · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
xannii · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 4 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
457 picks · 271 bans
Mars
406 picks · 539 bans
Weaver
339 picks · 440 bans
Queen of Pain
320 picks · 487 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 552 bans
Tiny
280 picks · 305 bans
Kunkka
275 picks · 510 bans
Ember Spirit
270 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% No Monkey Business
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:41
cybercats 48%No Monkey Business 52%
The model gave 52% on No Monkey Business — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 31:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightShigetsu
Bloodseekerxannii
Keeper of the LightUSHUSHUSH
Ember SpiritEgor
Vengeful SpiritActor
Dragon KnightMieRo
PangolierFezor
Techiesillusion
BaneHduo
Game 2prediction correct11:29
cybercats 48%No Monkey Business 52%
The model gave 52% on No Monkey Business — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 23:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverShigetsu
Monkey Kingxannii
Centaur WarrunnerActor
Death ProphetEgor
Storm SpiritUSHUSHUSH
PangolierMieRo
GrimstrokeFezor
Rubickillusion
Dragon KnightHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Monkey Business · 53%
Series resultNo Monkey Business 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2