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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatswin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Sorryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

cybercats

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hduo · 10 games
30%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
Hduo · 7 games
29%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shigetsu · 6 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fezor · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
20%
Rubick
Rubick
Fezor · 4 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 4 games
75%

No Sorry

Bane
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 23 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 22 games
45%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
layme · 22 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 20 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 18 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
473 picks · 627 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 502 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 279 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
409 picks · 531 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
361 picks · 805 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 557 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 519 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 558 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:34
cybercats 42%No Sorry 58%
The model gave 58% on No Sorry — the game was taken by cybercats in 52:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverShigetsu
50% · 225 games51% · 31 game
JuggernautKami
Juggernaut
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEgor
47% · 228 games56% · 201 game
PuckWorick
Puck
Visage
VisageDkFogas
46% · 21 game49% · 335 games
MarsLastHero-
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
47% · 61 game49% · 62 games
Skywrath Magey0nd
Skywrath Mage
Doom
DoomFezor
53% · 113 games45% · 19 games
LichBLACKARXANGEL
Lich
Game 2prediction correct9:37
cybercats 40%No Sorry 60%
The model gave 60% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverShigetsu
50% · 329 games53% · 149 games
Chaos KnightKami
Chaos Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEgor
49% · 342 games67% · 162 games
BeastmasterLastHero-
Beastmaster
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDkFogas
48% · 289 games46% · 270 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFezor
40% · 295 games47% · 272 games
Hoodwinky0nd
Hoodwink
Pugna
PugnaHduo
44% · 161 game55% · 563 games
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Bane
Game 3prediction missed29:25
cybercats 40%No Sorry 60%
The model gave 60% on No Sorry — the game was taken by cybercats in 44:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerShigetsu
49% · 122 games51% · 131 game
Chaos KnightKami
Chaos Knight
Sand King
Sand KingEgor
47% · 362 games51% · 195 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Underlord
UnderlordDkFogas
42% · 79 games48% · 390 games
MarsLastHero-
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFezor
48% · 414 games61% · 168 games
Miranay0nd
Mirana
Pugna
PugnaHduo
45% · 166 games59% · 259 games
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 64%
Series resultcybercats 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3