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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatsloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

cybercats

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 32 games
53%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 19 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 18 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 17 games
65%
Visage
Visagesignature
DkFogas · 17 games
82%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fezor · 15 games
67%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 13 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
46%

One Move

Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 30 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 30 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 29 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 29 games
72%
Bane
Banesignature
Panto · 22 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
AfterLife · 17 games
88%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Smiling Knight · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
737 picks · 568 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
523 picks · 1052 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
469 picks · 619 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
432 picks · 775 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 405 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
360 picks · 180 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
326 picks · 618 bans
51%
Zeus
Zeus
325 picks · 377 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:33
cybercats 42%One Move 58%
The model gave 58% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerShigetsu
50% · 103 games49% · 86 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Zeus
ZeusEgor
44% · 146 games54% · 142 games
Batridermellojul
Batrider
Mars
MarsDkFogas
51% · 290 games55% · 71 game
BrewmasterAfterLife
Brewmaster
Undying
UndyingHduo
42% · 82 games50% · 403 games
Tinysayuw
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFezor
50% · 142 games55% · 61 game
DazzlePanto
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed31:21
cybercats 41%One Move 59%
The model gave 59% on One Move — the game was taken by cybercats in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkShigetsu
50% · 40 games43% · 36 games
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
Phantom Assassin
Windranger
WindrangerEgor
50% · 88 games49% · 102 games
Queen of Painmellojul
Queen of Pain
Enigma
EnigmaDkFogas
53% · 87 games51% · 105 games
PangolierAfterLife
Pangolier
Dazzle
DazzleHduo
48% · 42 games51% · 107 games
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinFezor
52% · 151 game50% · 58 games
Treant ProtectorPanto
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct6:43
cybercats 46%One Move 54%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 30:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackShigetsu
61% · 44 games41% · 41 game
SvenSmiling Knight
Sven
Puck
PuckEgor
53% · 179 games45% · 220 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDkFogas
61% · 133 games48% · 43 games
SlardarAfterLife
Slardar
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageFezor
62% · 106 games49% · 57 games
UndyingPanto
Undying
Dazzle
DazzleHduo
47% · 41 game35% · 142 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 63%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3