ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARI PARNIloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
cybercats
Hoodwink
Fezor · 26 games
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 18 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 14 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hduo · 13 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 11 games
Doomsignature
Fezor · 11 games
PARI PARNI
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
613 picks · 463 bans
Puck
430 picks · 933 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 187 bans
Mars
360 picks · 585 bans
Dawnbreaker
349 picks · 401 bans
Dragon Knight
337 picks · 458 bans
Bane
318 picks · 196 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:13
cybercats 55%PARI PARNI 45%
The model gave 55% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 29:54.
Game 2prediction correct46:19
cybercats 55%PARI PARNI 45%
The model gave 55% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 31:55.
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 55%
Series resultcybercats 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2