cybercats vs xalunmend — prediction PCMV# · Dota 2

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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3

result vs prediction

cybercatswin 2:0

series probability

72%28%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Xxalunmendloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

cybercats

Clockwerk

Hduo · 11 games

45%

Tiny

Chira JUNIOR · 11 games

45%

Lycanoften banned

zenica · 9 games

22%

Treant Protectorsignature

forcemajor · 9 games

67%

Hoodwink

jesv · 8 games

38%

Rubick

jesv · 7 games

29%

Shadow Fiendoften banned

Alberkaaa · 7 games

43%

Doomoften banned

zenica · 6 games

33%

xalunmend

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

855 picks · 601 bans

49%

Tiny

614 picks · 424 bans

52%

Treant Protector

528 picks · 542 bans

55%

Tusk

522 picks · 428 bans

47%

Nature's Prophet

510 picks · 822 bans

55%

Death Prophet

458 picks · 944 bans

52%

Snapfire

457 picks · 316 bans

47%

Clockwerk

406 picks · 294 bans

56%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%

Hero pool strength54% xalunmend

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total72% cybercats

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct48:58

cybercats 62%xalunmend 38%

The model gave 62% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 1:07:41.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

Nature's ProphetAlberkaaa

51% · 150 games54% · 105 games

SpectreWoE