EPL Masters III · BO3
result vs prediction
CyberHerowin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CyberHero
Rubick
Wein · 7 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
Winter Wyvern
Htrd · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Bb3px · 3 games
Pangolier
Ainkrad · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Bb3px · 2 games
PuckChamp
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 18 games
Techies
Gothic- · 15 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 12 games
Linaoften banned
спортик · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
Slardar
krol9ash · 10 games
Centaur Warrunner
krol9ash · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
506 picks · 314 bans
Dark Willow
433 picks · 223 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
338 picks · 309 bans
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 493 bans
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 283 bans
Windranger
275 picks · 130 bans
Earth Spirit
274 picks · 503 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength64% CyberHero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% CyberHero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:19
CyberHero 73%PuckChamp 27%
The model gave 73% on CyberHero — the game was taken by CyberHero in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetWoE
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
BrewmasterBb3px
Dragon KnightonLiTaL
Earth SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spiritgbc
HoodwinkWein
MiranaAkamu
Winter WyvernHtrd
RubickGothic-
Game 2prediction correct37:26
CyberHero 75%PuckChamp 25%
The model gave 75% on CyberHero — the game was taken by CyberHero in 33:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordWoE
Necrophoskrol9ash
Storm SpiritAinkrad
MarcionLiTaL
DoomBb3px
Pangoliergbc
MiranaHtrd
HoodwinkAkamu
RubickWein
WindrangerGothic-
Model check result
Model favoriteCyberHero · 87%
Series resultCyberHero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2