EPL Masters III · BO3
result vs prediction
CyberHeroloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CyberHero
Rubicksignature
Wein · 8 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
Winter Wyvern
Htrd · 5 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Bb3px · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 3 games
Hoodwink
Wein · 3 games
Pangolier
Ainkrad · 3 games
Team Lynx
Hoodwink
QBFY · 38 games
Techies
kreker · 26 games
Rubick
QBFY · 23 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 22 games
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 19 games
Tinysignature
mellojul · 18 games
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 16 games
Pangolier
VladikTheHtiviy · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
506 picks · 312 bans
Dark Willow
429 picks · 223 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
337 picks · 310 bans
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 490 bans
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 282 bans
Windranger
275 picks · 130 bans
Earth Spirit
273 picks · 501 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% CyberHero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct62:27
CyberHero 50%Team Lynx 50%
The model gave 50% on CyberHero — the game was taken by CyberHero in 43:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerWoE
Nature's Prophetv1olent-
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Snapfiremellojul
DoomBb3px
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
TechiesWein
Clockwerkkreker
Winter WyvernHtrd
HoodwinkQBFY
Game 2prediction correct13:32
CyberHero 48%Team Lynx 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 26:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth SpiritAinkrad
Slarkv1olent-
LifestealerWoE
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
UnderlordBb3px
Dragon KnightVladikTheHtiviy
RubickWein
Techieskreker
Winter WyvernHtrd
WindrangerQBFY
Game 3prediction correct36:51
CyberHero 49%Team Lynx 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 55:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageWoE
Svenv1olent-
Earth SpiritAinkrad
BrewmasterVladikTheHtiviy
DoomBb3px
Ember Spiritmellojul
RubickWein
Miranakreker
Witch DoctorHtrd
WindrangerQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 53%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3