Чемпионат России по Dota 2 2022 · BO3
result vs predictionCNcybermos NonTeachableloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
X3win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
cybermos NonTeachable
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Bane
Kidaro · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
476 picks · 627 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 504 bans
Bane
441 picks · 279 bans
Sand King
411 picks · 532 bans
Death Prophet
361 picks · 805 bans
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 560 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 520 bans
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% cybermos NonTeachable
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:44
cybermos NonTeachable 39%X3 61%
The model gave 61% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 35:00.
Game 2prediction correct28:29
cybermos NonTeachable 39%X3 61%
The model gave 61% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 52:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 61%
Series resultX3 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2