DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlers SEAloss 0:2series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers SEA
No games played over 6 months.
Team Nemesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 14 games
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
Sand King
Mac · 9 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
Clockwerk
Ponyo · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
561 picks · 666 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 334 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 661 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 532 bans
Snapfire
433 picks · 152 bans
Hoodwink
412 picks · 198 bans
Mars
380 picks · 516 bans
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 501 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% D2 Hustlers SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
D2 Hustlers SEA 9%Team Nemesis 91%
The model gave 91% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 14:44.
Game 2prediction correct10:23
D2 Hustlers SEA 9%Team Nemesis 91%
The model gave 91% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 22:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 91%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2