European Pro League Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monaspaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
394 picks · 380 bans
Tiny
352 picks · 354 bans
Rubick
330 picks · 228 bans
Mirana
286 picks · 286 bans
Snapfire
209 picks · 111 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 148 bans
Treant Protector
208 picks · 264 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 523 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% D2 Hustlers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:30
D2 Hustlers 36%Monaspa 64%
The model gave 64% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 48:45.
Game 2prediction correct30:42
D2 Hustlers 36%Monaspa 64%
The model gave 64% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 41:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 64%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2