ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nightshadeloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
Grimstrokeoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
9Class · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
9Class · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Davai · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Davai · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Stojkov · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Davai · 1 game
Nightshade
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
Kyzko · 1 game
Tusk
Kyzko · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
224 picks · 273 bans
Grimstroke
209 picks · 237 bans
Dark Willow
206 picks · 90 bans
Pangolier
187 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
176 picks · 238 bans
Sven
171 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Treant Protector
169 picks · 387 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Nightshade
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:11
D2 Hustlers 67%Nightshade 33%
The model gave 67% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 29:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingDavai
Centaur WarrunnerChodΣX
LifestealerShad
PhoenixKyzko
Primal BeastStojkov
Invoker9Class
Ancient ApparitionStoic
Game 2prediction correct46:21
D2 Hustlers 64%Nightshade 36%
The model gave 64% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 28:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerShad
BrewmasterChodΣX
Templar AssassinStojkov
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Primal BeastDavai
Vengeful SpiritStoic
Dark Willow9Class
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 79%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2