European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dandelionsloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 14 games
Dark Willow
OneJey · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
Techies
OneJey · 12 games
Hoodwink
OneJey · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
452 picks · 197 bans
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 672 bans
Batrider
438 picks · 843 bans
Tiny
424 picks · 585 bans
Rubick
412 picks · 179 bans
Mars
391 picks · 631 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 678 bans
Techies
388 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Dandelions
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:35
Dandelions 24%HULIGANI 76%
The model gave 76% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:48.
Game 2prediction correct40:25
Dandelions 24%HULIGANI 76%
The model gave 76% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 45:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 76%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2