EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Dandelionsloss 0:1series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Level UPwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dandelions
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 4 games
Lina
xn丶e · 4 games
Ringmaster
Kyzko · 4 games
Rubick
SsaSpartan · 4 games
Snapfireoften banned
xn丶e · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
Hoodwink
Gilgir · 2 games
Kezoften banned
Nande · 2 games
Level UP
Hoodwink
queezy · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 10 games
Techiessignature
Htrd · 9 games
Windranger
chempik · 9 games
Undyingoften banned
Htrd · 7 games
Spectreoften banned
WoE · 6 games
Underlordoften banned
Bb3px · 6 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
495 picks · 355 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 233 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 636 bans
Tiny
336 picks · 346 bans
Windranger
316 picks · 230 bans
Pangolier
298 picks · 396 bans
Bane
294 picks · 283 bans
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Dandelions 17%Level UP 83%
The model gave 83% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 83%
Series resultLevel UP 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1