PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Dandelionswin 1:0series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 11 games
Batridersignature
rmN- · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 9 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
Miranasignature
KuroKy · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 7 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Ghost · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
410 picks · 658 bans
Mars
388 picks · 619 bans
Lion
386 picks · 358 bans
Techies
385 picks · 312 bans
Batrider
369 picks · 800 bans
Tiny
366 picks · 422 bans
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 356 bans
Hoodwink
339 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:11
Dandelions 21%Nigma Galaxy 79%
The model gave 79% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Dandelions in 31:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 79%
Series resultDandelions 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1